In the first half of the year, "downward and stable, with a slight recovery", the trend of the whole year "steady with progress, under pressure to move forward". At the recent analysis meeting on the operation situation of the machinery industry held by the Expert Committee of the China Machinery Industry Federation, Cai Weici, a special consultant of the China Machinery Industry Federation, summarized and predicted the operation characteristics of the machinery industry in the first half of the year and the whole year.
Cai Weici said that from the perspective of industry operation, in the first half of the year, the differentiation between industries and within the industry was more obvious. In contrast, private enterprises performed relatively well. Judging the trend of the whole year, he believes that the bottom of the L-shape has basically been seen, and the industry will continue to consolidate. Although it is too early to predict a rebound, at least it will stabilize.
Cai Weici reminded the industry to pay attention to three risk factors. First, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry itself has been greatly reduced. Second, although the data for the first four months shows that the decline in machinery industry exports has narrowed month by month, it is difficult to say whether it can turn negative into positive. Third, industry differentiation continued to intensify. In the first half of the year, automobiles and electricians played a huge role in driving industry growth, and the industry relied too much.
The overall operation has stabilized, and the main indicators are better than the previous year
Since the beginning of this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has continued the trend of stabilization in the fourth quarter of last year. From January to May, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry was lower than the national industrial growth rate in the previous year and returned to higher than the national industrial average growth rate. The relevant person in charge of China Machinery Federation said that at present, because the relevant industries are completing the tasks of reducing production capacity, destocking, and deleveraging, it has a great impact on the machinery industry. The industry demand is weak and the differentiation is intensified.
Judging from the data of the first five months, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry in the first half of this year are better than the national industry and better than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the national industrial added value increased by 5.9%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7%, and the machinery industry added value increased by 7.6%. The growth rate of the machinery industry was 1.7 and 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the industrial and manufacturing industries in the same period, and higher than the previous year. 2.1 percentage points over the same period. From the perspective of main business income, the main business income of the machinery industry from January to April was 7,164.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, 3.35 percentage points higher than that of the national industry in the same period. The machinery industry realized a total profit of 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, slightly lower than the national industry in the same period by 0.16 percentage points. Among the 119 major product outputs monitored by the machinery industry, 61 product varieties increased year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for 51.26%, and 58 product varieties decreased year-on-year, accounting for 48.74%, and the products with double-digit growth were only There are 16 species.
The differentiation has intensified, and the electrical and automotive industry has performed well
Cai Weici said that in the first half of the year, the industry's downward trend stabilized, and the decline rate narrowed. Among them, automobiles and electricians contributed the most to the industry. Its main business revenue growth contributed 80%. The profit growth of the machinery industry relies too much on the automobile, electrical and electrical industries.
From the data, from January to April, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 464.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, higher than the average level of the machinery industry in the same period of the previous year. Among them, the automobile industry realized a total profit of 204.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%, and the new profit was 14.061 billion yuan, accounting for 50.68% of the new profit of the machinery industry in the same period, driving the profit of the machinery industry to increase by 3.22 percentage points. The electrical and electrical industry realized a profit of 92.386 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and the new profit was 13.022 billion yuan, accounting for 46.93% of the new profit of the machinery industry, driving the profit of the machinery industry to increase by 2.98 percentage points. The total new profit of the automobile, electrical and electrical industries is 27.083 billion yuan, accounting for 97.61% of the new profit of the machinery industry of 27.746 billion yuan.
It should be noted that with the economic development entering the medium and low-speed growth channel, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has declined, and the lack of orders in the machinery industry is still serious. Statistics show that this year, the cumulative order value of key enterprises in the machinery industry has broken away from the trend of year-on-year decline. From January to March, it increased by 4.43% year-on-year, up 13.67 percentage points from the same period last year. The cumulative orders from January to April increased by 3.65% year-on-year, which was 0.78 percentage points lower than that of January to March, and the ordering situation was unstable. Although the problem of insufficient orders of enterprises has improved, the problem of insufficient capacity utilization is still more prominent compared with the years with the highest production.
Cai Weici said that due to the close relationship between the development of the machinery industry and the investment in fixed assets, the industry should pay attention to the substantial reduction in the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the whole society, all manufacturing industries, and the machinery industry itself.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the investment in fixed assets in the whole society increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the investment in the machinery industry increased by 6.31%.
Among the 13 major industries of the machinery industry, the electrical and electrical industry increased by 11.98% year-on-year, the automobile industry increased by 12.42%, the basic mechanical parts increased by 10.81%, the cultural office equipment increased by 23.39%, the food packaging machinery increased by 14.58%, and the construction machinery industry increased by 8.41%. The growth rate is higher than the industry average. The four industries of agricultural machinery, internal combustion engine, heavy duty and machine tool decreased year-on-year. The three industries of instrumentation, petrochemical general and other civil machinery increased slightly by about 1%.
At the same time, the foreign trade import and export of the machinery industry is still not optimistic. In the first four months of this year, the total foreign trade import and export, export and import of the machinery industry accounted for about 18% of the national total. From January to April, the total import and export of machinery industry was 198.497 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, of which imports were 81.812 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and exports were 116.685 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%.
In this regard, Cai Weici said that the decline in exports has narrowed month by month, but it is difficult to say whether it can turn negative into positive. Moreover, the contribution of exports to the growth of the industry is relatively small, so we cannot place more hope on exports for the growth of the industry.
China Machine Federation believes that although the overall performance indicators in the first half of the year were better than those of the national industry and the same period of the previous year, nearly half of the output of major products fell year-on-year, the industry profit growth differed significantly, the investment growth rate was at a low level, and the foreign trade export was still not optimistic. Contradictory constraints such as industrial structural excess, weak independent innovation capability, extensive production methods, lack of product quality and brands, and low level of integration of the two industries have not been effectively alleviated, and the task of improving the quality and efficiency of the industry is still arduous.